The Trump Parallel: A Warning From History in Real Time
St. Lucia Dodged a Bullet: Warning From History in Real Time
But 2025 has offered something more valuable than speculation: real-time evidence of what happens when the Trump playbook meets the reality of governance.
The Shared Playbook: Spectacle, Religion, and Division
Allen Chastanet's political style borrowed heavily from the Trump manual: make every day a spectacle, attack opponents personally, present yourself as a strongman saviour, and wrap it all in religious packaging to deflect criticism.
Like Trump, Chastanet positioned himself as the champion of "forgotten" constituencies—in his case, the rural communities and working-class voters who felt left behind. Like Trump, he used social media to bypass traditional media gatekeepers and spread his message directly. Like Trump, he cultivated a cult of personality among his base, treating criticism of the leader as a betrayal of the movement.
As with Trump, Chastanet did not learn, when he was voted out in 2021, that tactics that work in opposition fall apart when you actually have to govern. The shouting and finger-pointing that energize rallies do not balance budgets. The us-versus-them rhetoric that wins headlines doesn't create jobs. And religious rebranding to soften your image doesn't overcome a record of economic mismanagement and divisive governance.
Trump's 2025 Collapse: The Numbers Don't Lie
According to recent Gallup polling, Trump's job approval has fallen to 36%—the lowest of his second term and approaching the 34% all-time low he hit after the January 6 Capitol attack in 2021. His disapproval rating now stands at 60%. More troubling for Republicans:
• Republican approval has dropped seven points to 84%—the lowest of Trump's second term
• Independent approval has crashed eight points to just 25%—the worst in either term
• Trump's ratings on key issues have collapsed: economy (36%), healthcare (30%), federal budget (31%), and Ukraine (31%)
Republicans' approval of their own party has plummeted from 54% in September to 23% now.
These aren't just bad numbers. They're historically catastrophic. And they look remarkably similar to the trajectory Chastanet was already on before Saint Lucian voters first stopped him cold in 2021.
Vindictiveness and Vengeance:
In March 2019, Chastanet eagerly accepted Trump's invitation to Mar-a-Lago—breaking CARICOM unity to meet with a president who had called Haiti and African nations "shithole countries" just months earlier. While Antigua's Prime Minister Gaston Browne called Chastanet and the other attendees "weak-minded" for betraying regional solidarity, Chastanet defended his photo opportunity with a man who treats Caribbean people with open contempt.
But the real parallel runs deeper than opportunism. In 2025, Trump has embarked on what critics call an unprecedented campaign of retribution—targeting at least 470 political opponents, critics, and perceived enemies. He's weaponized the Justice Department to indict former FBI Director James Comey. He's threatened senators with court-martial. He's stripped security clearances from dozens of intelligence officials. He's directed his Attorney General to prosecute rivals. As Trump declared: "I am your retribution."
Saint Lucians recognize this pattern. During Chastanet's 2016-2021 term, the opposition SLP repeatedly described his administration as "vindictive and callous," accusing him of using state power to persecute political opponents. When Chastanet cut funding for the National Trust, SLP leader Philip J. Pierre called it "vicious, vindictive, petty and bullying." The accusations of using government machinery to target critics became a defining feature of his leadership style.
This matters to Caribbean audiences in ways that American government shutdowns don't. We've lived through strongmen who weaponize state institutions. We know what it looks like when leaders treat disagreement as betrayal, when they use police and prosecutors to silence critics, when they punish communities that voted against them. Trump's campaign of retribution against 470 targets isn't abstract—it's the playbook of authoritarians everywhere. Chastanet demonstrated to Saint Lucia that he was ready to use it.
Imagine a second Chastanet term with Trump as his model. Saint Lucia placed on U.S. travel restriction lists—and Chastanet defending it. Tariffs crushing our tourism industry—and Chastanet praising Trump's "America First" agenda. Deportations devastating Caribbean families—and Chastanet standing silent or, worse, collaborating. Political opponents facing persecution—and Chastanet using Trump's playbook to silence dissent at home. This wasn't hypothetical. The blueprint was clear. Saint Lucians saw it and said no.
Both Trump and Chastanet built their political brands on claims of economic competence and job creation. Both positioned themselves as business-minded pragmatists who would run government like a successful company. Both promised to deliver prosperity that their opponents couldn't match.
Both failed.
Trump's 2025 approval rating on the economy stands at just 36%—despite Republican control of Congress and his constant claims of economic genius. The reality is that his policies produced volatility, not growth. His tariffs hurt American businesses. His tax cuts primarily benefited the wealthy. His trade wars created uncertainty. And his inability to work with Congress produced paralysis. More troubling still, his approval on cost-of-living issues dropped to just 27%, as Americans felt the squeeze of inflation and questioned his economic promises.
Chastanet's record tells a similar story. The promised jobs didn't materialize in the numbers claimed. The major projects employed foreign workers while locals struggled. The citizenship programs enriched a few while raising concerns about security and oversight. The fiscal situation deteriorated, with debt climbing and key economic indicators stagnating.
Most damningly, both men's own parties lost faith in their economic stewardship. When even your traditional allies start questioning your competence—as Republicans did with Trump in 2025 and UWP members did with Chastanet—the game is over.
Saint Lucia's economy depends on stability, consistency, and careful management. It cannot afford the kind of chaos and volatility that the Trump-Chastanet approach inevitably produces. The voters understood this, even if Chastanet never did.
The Cost of Divisiveness: When Your Own Party Abandons You
Perhaps the most damning parallel between Trump and Chastanet is this: both men so alienated and divided their own parties that even traditional loyalists abandoned them.
Trump's Republican approval dropping to 84%—down seven points in just months—represents a historic breach between a president and his party. These aren't Democrats or independents giving up on Trump; these are Republicans who voted for him, supported him, defended him, and now can't stomach what he's become.
Chastanet experienced the same erosion. The UWP fractures, the internal dissent, the questioning of his leadership style, the concerns about his divisiveness—all pointed to a leader who had lost not just the country but his own team.
This is what happens when you govern by division rather than unity. When you treat every disagreement as warfare. When you punish dissent and demand absolute loyalty. When you confuse strength with stubbornness and conviction with contempt.
Saint Lucia is a small island nation where relationships matter, where community counts, where finding common ground isn't just good politics—it's essential for survival. The Trump-Chastanet approach of constant conflict and permanent warfare simply doesn't work in this context. It tears apart the social fabric. It makes governance impossible. It turns politics into a blood sport that leaves everyone worse off.
The voters saw where this road leads. They saw it in Trump's America in 2025. They remembered it from Chastanet's term from 2016 to 2021. And they said: Not again.
Why the Religious Rebrand Couldn't Overcome the Record
Both Trump and Chastanet attempted to use religious rebranding to rehabilitate their images and deflect criticism. Trump increasingly leaned into evangelical Christianity despite a personal history that contradicted those values. Chastanet similarly emphasized his Catholic faith and religious commitments, particularly as criticism of his governance style mounted.
But voters proved they couldn't be fooled by convenient conversions or strategic piety. Trump's religious supporters abandoned him when his policies produced chaos and his conduct undermined their values. Chastanet's religious messaging couldn't overcome memories of his divisive leadership and questionable priorities.
The lesson: you can't pray away a bad record. You can't use religious imagery to obscure policy failures. Voters are smarter than that, and they're paying attention to what you do, not just what you say or what symbols you deploy.
In both cases, the religious rebranding felt cynical and calculated—because it was. And voters responded accordingly, seeing through the performance to the reality underneath.
The Bullet Dodged: What Saint Lucia Avoided
As Trump's second term descended into chaos in 2025—with approval ratings in the basement, a government shutdown that paralyzed the country, his own party abandoning him, and his promises exposed as empty—Saint Lucians can reflect on what they avoided by rejecting Chastanet.
They avoided a leader who models himself after a failed president. They avoided the chaos and volatility of governance by spectacle. They avoided the fiscal recklessness that would have imperilled their economy. They avoided the divisiveness that would have torn their communities apart. They avoided the religious posturing that insults the intelligence. They avoided four more years of style over substance, noise over nuance, division over unity.
Most importantly, they avoided finding out—after it was too late—that the emperor had no clothes. That the business genius was actually reckless. That the strongman was actually weak. That the outsider was just another politician, but without the skill or discipline to actually govern.
Trump's 2025 collapse isn't just a political story playing out in America. It's a validation of the choice that Saint Lucian voters made on December 1, 2025. It's confirmation that they read the situation correctly, understood the risks accurately, and made a wise choice.
Allen Chastanet modelled himself after Donald Trump. In 2025, Donald Trump showed the world—and Saint Lucia—exactly why that was a terrible idea. Saint Lucians were smart enough to see it coming and bold enough to say no.
They dodged a bullet. And the smoking gun is on full display in Washington, D.C., for anyone with eyes to see it.
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